REALITY CHECK FOR WALL STREET

The reason for the big stock sell-off on the two days after the election, according to what I hear and read from a good many people, is simple.  I say reason because there's only one reason for the catastrophic drop in the Dow - despair over the reelection of President Obama for another four years, which will be the end of the world as we know it.

I know little about the stock market, but investing in stocks seems pretty much of a crap shoot, since it appears that a good many, but surely not all, investors buy and sell on the basis of emotions, which run the gamut from euphoria to panic, and a soupçon of research.  I am told by experts that, in the long run, investments in stocks produce the best results, but that one should have a balanced portfolio, because as some investments go up, others go down, i.e. stocks versus bonds.   That's in the long run.  And yes, it's true that in the long run, we are all dead, and we can't take it with us.

By temperament I am not a risk-taker, but it seems to me that during a sell-off is the time to buy stocks at bargain prices.  It's knowing when the bottom is near that's sticky.  Just when do you jump in?  I tend not to follow the herd, buying when everyone is buying, and selling when everyone is selling.  I'd do the opposite.  Anyway, Grandpère does most of the investing under the guidance of a trusted friend and what he reads around and about, but before he makes changes, he usually discusses them with me, and I give him my sage advice which he follows sometimes and other times not.  But I digress.

An article by Michael Santoli from yesterday made a great deal of sense to me.  Investors who headed for the fainting couch during the precipitous drop may wish to read...or not.  The article is reality-based, so Republicans may not be interested.

Like anything complicated, a dramatic market move is inevitably driven by things we know, things we don't, and things we know that just aren't so. The past two days' 3.5% stock sell-off has had an unusual volume of sloganeered causes pinned to it, making it all the more important to figure out where the obvious factors deviate from the valid ones.

What else besides the reelection of the president might have been at play in the sell-off?

The election
President Obama's re-election was a close enough call as of Tuesday morning that a significant number of investors clearly set up a tactical bet on a Romney win.

Yes, get that one out of the way.

The fiscal cliff
This impending expiration of some $600 billion worth of annual tax cuts and spending measures, arriving Jan. 1 unless Congress acts, has gone from obscure preoccupation of economists and Washington wonks to a full-blown public obsession in about 72 hours.

If you read nothing else at the link, please read the section on the fiscal cliff.

Europe
The resurfacing of concerns about the European economy and the progress of the Greek bailout and general sovereign-debt firewall there might be the one factor not getting enough credit for the market queasiness.

I've heard and read that the European economic troubles have nothing to do with the drop in the Dow, but I don't believe it, and neither does Santoli.

Market technical clues
Stocks were showing waning momentum well before the bleating about taxes and cliffs got loud this week. Yesterday the Standard & Poor's 500 sagged below its 200-day moving average, which many market handicappers believe means the market's prevailing trend is no longer up.

If the president is to be blamed, I'd like to see the buck stop with him because of what he's actually done besides get reelected, not because of mistaken perceptions - that he is a socialist (which is laughable), or because he's black (yes, racism is in the air), or because the majority of people in the United States had the temerity to reelect him to office against the wishes of a vocal and angry minority.  I'm not above faulting the president for his policies and actions over the last four years, for I have done so more than once, but I'm thoroughly sick and tired of him being blamed for all the wrong reasons, especially by those who do not and will not consider truths and facts that do not fit into the fantasy world they have created for themselves.  Witness their shock and disbelief  that Obama was reelected in the face of late polls that showed him ahead.

Image from Wikipedia Commons.

MADE ME CRY

June --

President Obama made a surprise visit to the campaign office in Chicago yesterday to give a heartfelt thank-you to staff and volunteers.

I wanted to pass this video along, because it's a message every single person who helped build this campaign deserves to see. He wasn't just talking to those of us in the office -- he was talking to all of you.

In his speech on Election Night, President Obama gave you all the title you have spent the last year and a half earning:

"The best campaign team and volunteers in the history of politics."

So many times in this election, this campaign was counted out. They said our supporters wouldn't turn out, and we'd never see the kind of voter participation we saw in 2008. They said we'd be buried in money and special-interest influence. And they said that no campaign could overcome the political headwinds we faced.

Last year, a major American newspaper asked, "Is Obama toast?" As recently as two weeks ago, another ran this headline: "Can Obama win?"

Tuesday night, you all answered all of those doubts with a resounding YES WE CAN. By knocking on doors, organizing phone banks, and chipping in a few bucks when you could, you built a campaign that is unparalleled. And you re-elected our president.

You also proved that millions of ordinary people taking ownership of a cause is still the most powerful force in our political process. You showed that grassroots organizing and small donations are not only the right way to win, but also the most effective way.

How we got here must guide where we go. If we're going to accomplish the things America voted for on Tuesday, you've got to be even more involved in getting them done than you were in giving us all the chance.

We'll be in touch soon about how we can get started on some of the President's top priorities in his second term.

For now, I just want to say I am so proud of this team. And I can't wait to see where you take this incredible movement from here.

Thank you -- more to come,

Messina

Jim Messina
Campaign Manager
Obama for America

QUICK THOUGHT AFTER THE ELECTION

 

Perhaps it might be helpful if we moved away from lamenting that the people of the country are so very divided and rather began to speak of people having different opinions about various issues, which has been the case since the founding of the republic. Yes, feelings run high after the election, but Obama strikes the right notes when he speaks in hope of people coming together, which he did last night and repeats fairly often.

I believe we can seize this future together because we are not as divided as our politics suggests. We’re not as cynical as the pundits believe. We are greater than the sum of our individual ambitions, and we remain more than a collection of red states and blue states. We are and forever will be the United States of America.

Some thought the acceptance speech too long, but I thought it was just right.  The president said what needed to be said, no more, no less.

Update from The Book of Common Prayer:

Help us, O Lord, to finish the good work here begun.
Strengthen our efforts to blot out ignorance and prejudice,
and to abolish poverty and crime. And hasten the day when
all our people, with many voices in one united chorus, will
glorify your holy Name. Amen.

Thanks to Mark in the comments.

FOUR MORE YEARS!

 

COMPARE AND CONTRAST

In this case, it was once-in-a-lifetime Superstorm Sandy, which caused the outspoken Republican governor of New Jersey to declare a state of emergency and seek federal help for widespread devastation.

Interviewed Tuesday on NBC, Christie described Obama's response as "outstanding," and he told CNN that the president had been "incredibly supportive and helpful to our state."

"This is much more important than any election," Christie told CNN's "Piers Morgan Tonight."

Obama has "been outstanding to deal with on this and I look forward to seeing him tomorrow so he can see for himself what this hurricane has done to my state," Christie said Tuesday night.

If you say so, Governor Chris.

It also focused attention on how Romney would handle such a disaster if he were to defeat Obama in what is expected to be a very close election.

On Tuesday, the GOP candidate showed little inclination to address the matter. At a campaign event changed to a storm relief effort in Ohio, Romney ignored shouted questions by reporters on whether he supported the Federal Emergency Management Agency's role in disaster relief.

Instead, he focused his remarks to supporters who donated relief supplies for storm victims on how such efforts contribute to meeting the overall need.

"We won't be able to solve all the problems with our effort this morning," Romney said, adding "one of the things you learn in life is you make the difference you can, and you can't always solve all the problems yourself."

So.  Who do you want as your president in a crunch?

Nevertheless, there is a place in disaster recovery for donations to private charities that pitch in to supplement aid from the government.  Links below.

Red Cross

Episcopal Relief & Development (My favorite)

BLUNT AND CANDID

Col. Lawrence Wilkerson former chief of staff to Colin Powell is very blunt and candid about racism in the Republican party.

It's no surprise to me that Col Wilkerson states candidly that the Republican Party is "full of racists".  Louisiana is a very red state, and I'd agree with the colonel that the Republican Party here is "full of racists". 

COMPARE AND CONTRAST

 

The pollsters tell me, as of today, the election is a dead heat, but I'm having real trouble wrapping my head around that piece of information.  The election on November 6 should be a landslide in favor of Obama...a landslide, not because Obama did everything right in the last four years, for I have issues with certain of his policies, but the president did much to better the lives of the citizens of the US. Below is a list of the top-10 accomplishments of the Obama administration from The Washington Monthly.  See details and the rest of the list here.

1. Passed Health Care Reform
 
3. Passed Wall Street Reform

4. Ended the War in Iraq

5. Began Drawdown of War in Afghanistan

6. Eliminated Osama bin laden

7. Turned Around U.S. Auto Industry

8. Recapitalized Banks

9. Repealed “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell

10. Toppled Moammar Gaddafi

I favor certain of Obama's accomplishments over others, but I measure them against what Romney offers the electorate. What are Romney's accomplishments?

1. Signed Romneycare into law as governor of Massachusetts.

2. CEO of Bain & Company, co-founded Bain Capital 

3. CEO of the 2002 Winter Olympics.

Romney backed away from Romneycare, then reclaimed the program, then backed away again.  Perhaps there was further waffling that I missed.

Romney accumulated vast wealth during his association with Bain.

The incredible untold story of the 2012 election so far is that Romney's run has been a shimmering pearl of perfect political hypocrisy, which he's somehow managed to keep hidden, even with thousands of cameras following his every move.And the drama of this rhetorical high-wire act was ratcheted up even further when Romney chose his running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin – like himself, a self-righteously anal, thin-lipped, Whitest Kids U Know penny pincher who'd be honored to tell Oliver Twist there's no more soup left. By selecting Ryan, Romney, the hard-charging, chameleonic champion of a disgraced-yet-defiant Wall Street, officially succeeded in moving the battle lines in the 2012 presidential race.

....

Last May, in a much-touted speech in Iowa, Romney used language that was literally inflammatory to describe America's federal borrowing. "A prairie fire of debt is sweeping across Iowa and our nation," he declared. "Every day we fail to act, that fire gets closer to the homes and children we love." Our collective debt is no ordinary problem: According to Mitt, it's going to burn our children alive.

And this is where we get to the hypocrisy at the heart of Mitt Romney. Everyone knows that he is fantastically rich, having scored great success, the legend goes, as a "turnaround specialist," a shrewd financial operator who revived moribund companies as a high-priced consultant for a storied Wall Street private equity firm. But what most voters don't know is the way Mitt Romney actually made his fortune: by borrowing vast sums of money that other people were forced to pay back. This is the plain, stark reality that has somehow eluded America's top political journalists for two consecutive presidential campaigns: Mitt Romney is one of the greatest and most irresponsible debt creators of all time. In the past few decades, in fact, Romney has piled more debt onto more unsuspecting companies, written more gigantic checks that other people have to cover, than perhaps all but a handful of people on planet Earth.

....

The only ones who profited in a big way from all the job-killing debt that Romney leveraged were Mitt and his buddies at Bain, along with Wall Street firms like Goldman and Citigroup. Barry Ritholtz, author of Bailout Nation, says the criticisms of Bain about layoffs and meanness miss a more important point, which is that the firm's profit-producing record is absurdly mediocre, especially when set against all the trouble and pain its business model causes. "Bain's fundamental flaw, at least according to the math," Ritholtz writes, "is that they took lots of risk, use immense leverage and charged enormous fees, for performance that was more or less the same as [stock] indexing."

So.  After all the skullduggery, destruction of businesses, and death of jobs, to the great financial benefit of CEOs and top management, Bain produced only a mediocre return for its investors.  Every voter should read the Rolling Stone piece.  It's long but very revealing of the real Mitt Romney, who would trash and pillage the country in a worse way than I ever imagined.  If you thought Gordon Gekko was bad....

POTEMKIN VILLAGE

 

Read the entire column.

SALT LAKE CITY TRIBUNE ENDORSES OBAMA

 

Nowhere has Mitt Romney’s pursuit of the presidency been more warmly welcomed or closely followed than here in Utah. The Republican nominee’s political and religious pedigrees, his adeptly bipartisan governorship of a Democratic state, and his head for business and the bottom line all inspire admiration and hope in our largely Mormon, Republican, business-friendly state.
....

Sadly, it is not the only Romney, as his campaign for the White House has made abundantly clear, first in his servile courtship of the tea party in order to win the nomination, and now as the party’s shape-shifting nominee. From his embrace of the party’s radical right wing, to subsequent portrayals of himself as a moderate champion of the middle class, Romney has raised the most frequently asked question of the campaign: "Who is this guy, really, and what in the world does he truly believe?"

Read the entire editorial, which makes the case for the newspaper's endorsement of Barack Obama quite well.  The following words from the endorsement are spot on.

Politicians routinely tailor their words to suit an audience. Romney, though, is shameless, lavishing vastly diverse audiences with words, any words, they would trade their votes to hear.

Shameless.  Exactly.  Romney and his entire campaign team have been shameless in saying anything, anything at all that would garner votes with no apparent regard for truth.  The Tribune's endorsement is a big deal...at least I believe it is.

I'd wager a good many Mormons are embarrassed by Romney's campaign.

Photo from PoliticalTicker. 

THAT NICE ROMNEY LAD

BILL LUMAYE: I’m going to ask something I think a lot of people want to know, or at least I do. What is it like for you to hear the President of the United States call your dad a liar. How do you react to that? 

TAGG ROMNEY: Jump out of your seat and you want to rush down to the debate stage and take a swing at him. But you know you can’t do that because… Well, first there is a lot of Secret Service between you and him but also because this is the nature of the process.

As Melissa in the comments said:

Huh. I thought violent people weren't supposed to come from two parent households.

Seemingly, respect for the office of President of the United States was not high on the training agenda for the five Romney lads, or perhaps Tagg models his dad.  We all saw during the second debate that Mitt treated President Barack Obama like one of "the help".  Like father, like son? 

Full interview with Tagg Romney at Think Progress.

WHOM DO YOU BELIEVE?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Secretary Clinton has done an extraordinary job. But she works for me. I’m the president. And I’m always responsible. And that’s why nobody is more interested in finding out exactly what happened than I did (sic).

The day after the attack, Governor, I stood in the Rose Garden, and I told the American people and the world that we are going to find out exactly what happened, that this was an act of terror. And I also said that we’re going to hunt down those who committed this crime. And then a few days later, I was there greeting the caskets coming into Andrews Air Force Base and grieving with the families.

And the suggestion that anybody in my team, whether the secretary of state, our U.N. ambassador, anybody on my team would play politics or mislead when we’ve lost four of our own, Governor, is offensive. That’s not what we do. That’s not what I do as president. That’s not what I do as commander in chief.

No acts of terror will ever shake the resolve of this great nation, alter that character, or eclipse the light of the values that we stand for.  Today we mourn four more Americans who represent the very best of the United States of America.  We will not waver in our commitment to see that justice is done for this terrible act.  And make no mistake, justice will be done.

Complete video and transcript of the Rose Garden speech.

Yes, "offensive", Governor Romney.  Your comments were offensive.  You persisted in your claim that Obama did not call the attack on the diplomatic compound an act of terror on the morning after the tragedy, despite the video.  You persisted despite the fact that Ambassador Chris Stevens' father, Jan Stevens, requested that his son's death not be politicized.

Republicans and even certain of the MSM are spinning the exchange as a victory for Romney because on the morning after the attack, President Obama did not say "attack on our diplomatic post" and "act of terror" in proper sequence in his speech in the Rose Garden.

QUICK WORDS ON THE DEBATE

Last night, Obama seemed disengaged to the point that I wondered if he really wants four more years. One can take cool only so far without seeming to be out of the game.

On the other hand, Romney was repellant. He reminded me of a high-pressure salesman who knows his product is a piece of junk but is determined to close the sale.

I'm tired of people blaming doddering, old Lehrer for Obama's poor performance. Sure, Lehrer didn't do his job as moderator, but Romney took advantage, while Obama continued to look to Lehrer for help. Dude!

And OMG, if Tweety and Ed are going to have public breakdowns on NBCNews, they should get off the air.

Maybe my last words on the debate, maybe not.  Romney lied a lot.

WEEKLY REMINDER

Romney is now claiming credit once again for the health care bill which he signed into law in Massachusetts after distancing himself from it for quite a while.  Well, kinda, sorta....  With each new day one wonders what will be Romney's position du jour on the various issues.

WEEKLY REMINDER

WEEKLY REMINDER

I'm late this week. Sorry.

COMPARE AND CONTRAST

President Obama this morning.



Secretary of State Hilary Clinton's statement last night:

"Some have sought to justify this vicious behavior as a response to inflammatory material posted on the Internet. The United States deplores any intentional effort to denigrate the religious beliefs of others. Our commitment to religious tolerance goes back to the very beginning of our nation. But let me be clear: There is never any justification for violent acts of this kind.

In light of the events of today, the United States government is working with partner countries around the world to protect our personnel, our missions, and American citizens worldwide."

 Mitt Romney's statement last night, September 11, 2012:

“I’m outraged by the attacks on American diplomatic missions in Libya and Egypt and by the death of an American consulate worker in Benghazi. It’s disgraceful that the Obama administration’s first response was not to condemn attacks on our diplomatic missions, but to sympathize with those who waged the attacks.”

What provoked Mitt Romney's verbal attack on President Obama:

Earlier today, officials at the U.S. Embassy in Egypt issued a statement that “condemns the continuing efforts by misguided individuals to hurt the religious feelings of Muslims — as we condemn efforts to offend believers of all religions.” The embassy said the statement was drafted and released before the protests. But the succession of events drew widespread criticism in the United States after violence broke out for appearing weak in the face of threats. 

Tweet by the chairman of the Republican National Commttee.

What about Americans standing together in the face of tragic death of four embassy employees, including Ambassador Chris Stevens?  Statements by Mitch McConnell (R) and John Boehner (R) demonstrate that now is not the time for partisan attacks.

“Yesterday we commemorated the anniversary of the attacks of September the 11th, and today we are reminded that brave Americans serve us every day at the risk of their own lives,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said in a statement. “We honor the Americans we lost in Libya and we will stand united in our response.”

Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) announced plans for a moment of silence in the House and ordered flags at half staff.

“We mourn for the families of our countrymen in Benghazi, and condemn this horrific attack,” he said in a statement. “Eleven years after September 11, this is a jolting reminder that freedom remains under siege by forces around the globe who relish violence over free expression, and terror over democracy — and that America and free people everywhere must remain vigilant in defense of our liberties.”

Had Romney taken the better part, he would have honored the Americans who died and their families by expressing his sympathy and pausing for a spell, rather than quickly attempting to use the tragedy to further his political advantage.

The attacks on the embassies were supposedly in response to an inflammatory anti-Muslim movie that was attributed to "Sam Bacile", who may not be a real person.  The 15 minute video trailer of the movie that was first believed to have set off the attacks is an amateurish, incoherent mish-mash.  Administration officials are now investigating whether the attacks may have been pre-planned. In the meantime, I will not comment further on the attacks until more information is available.

OH THIS IS RICH

Dick Cheney by Gage Skidmore

Former Vice President Dick Cheney took a shot at President Barack Obama late Monday night after it was reported that the president has attended fewer than half of his daily intelligence briefings.

“If President Obama were participating in his intelligence briefings on a regular basis then perhaps he would understand why people are so offended at his efforts to take sole credit for the killing of Osama bin Laden,” Cheney told The Daily Caller in an email through a spokeswoman.

“Those who deserve the credit are the men and women in our military and intelligence communities who worked for many years to track him down. They are the ones who deserve the thanks of a grateful nation.”

Hey Dick.  When did President Obama claim that he took out Osama Bin Laden single-handedly?   Poor Dick and the Neocons.  This really sticks in their craws.  Bush probably doesn't care, because he said to Fred Barnes about Bin Laden, “I truly am not that concerned about him.”   

What good purpose was served by Dick Cheney and George Bush participating in the intelligence briefings on a regular basis if the two did not do a damned thing in response to the warnings of his intelligence and national security staff that a terrorist attack in the US by Osama Bin Laden might be imminent?

Picture by Gage Skidmore from Wikimedia Commons. 

NOT GOOD ENOUGH!

Click on the image for the larger view.

 

Nick R. Martin at TPM:

The man in charge of running Arizona’s elections has gone to the birthers. Secretary of State Ken Bennett now says he’s not convinced Barack Obama was really born in the United States and so he is threatening to keep the president off the ballot in November.

Bennett’s comments came in an interview late Thursday with conservative radio talk show host Mike Broomhead on Phoenix station KFYI.

Bennett said he was following the lead of the state’s eccentric Sheriff Joe Arpaio, a fellow Republican who ordered an investigation into the president’s birth certificate last year and concluded the document released by the White House is a forgery. Bennett said he is now trying to get verification from state officials in Hawaii that the certificate is authentic.

Still beating the dead horse.  And Sheriff Joe Arpaio is the perfect choice as a role model.

But wait!

Bennett, the state’s No. 2 elected official just below Gov. Jan Brewer (R), said his investigation isn’t personal. He said the reason he started looking into it is because he got more than 1,200 emails asking him to do so after Arpaio’s investigation came out.

Of course, Bennett is not himself a birther, but he gets emails.  If the birthers are not good for anything else, they are good at sending emails, and attention must be paid to their idiotic fantasies.

Bennett has not heard back from the officials in Hawaii, because they want proof that Bennett is who he says he is.  Take that!  The officials are "tired of all the requests", and no wonder.

Sooo it's possible Bennett will exclude Obama's name from the ballot or, barring that, he will ask all the candidates for certified copies of their birth certificates if he does not receive a satisfactory response from Hawaii.  But one has to ask, what will satisfy the birthers?  Nothing, because they know the whole phony birth certificate scheme is a vast conspiracy to foist on the citizens of the US a president who was not born in this country.

Oh, and Bennett is a Mormon, which, of course, has nothing at all to do with anything.

V IS FOR VICTORY

Nevermind the timing, the motivation, the political calculation, or whatever else may have affected his decision, President Obama did the right thing when he announced that he favors same-sex marriage.  Instead of carping, how about if we just take a victory lap?

OBAMA - "SAME SEX COUPLES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET MARRIED"

Once Joe Biden made his announcement, I did not think Barack Obama would be far behind.  I doubt that Obama will lose votes because of the announcement.  The great majority of the folks who will be upset, would not have voted for the president anyway.  

 “I have to tell you that over the course of several years as I have talked to friends and family and neighbors, when I think about members of my own staff who are in incredibly committed monogamous relationships, same-sex relationships, who are raising kids together; when I think about those soldiers or airmen or marines or sailors who are out there fighting on my behalf and yet feel constrained, even now that ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ is gone, because they are not able to commit themselves in a marriage, at a certain point I’ve just concluded that for me personally it is important for me to go ahead and affirm that I think same sex couples should be able to get married,” Obama told Roberts in an interview to appear on ABC's "Good Morning America" Thursday.