October Surprise?

From the Times Online:

Some key decision makers in Israel fear that unless they attack Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities in the next few months, while George W Bush is still president, there will not be another period when they can rely on the United States as being anywhere near as supportive in the aftermath of a unilateral attack.

According to the Guardian, Olmert asked Bush in May to support an Israeli attack on Iran. In a rare moment of enlightenment and rational thinking, Bush refused.

Bush's decision to refuse to offer any support for a strike on Iran appeared to be based on two factors, the sources said. One was US concern over Iran's likely retaliation, which would probably include a wave of attacks on US military and other personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as on shipping in the Persian Gulf.

That is exactly right. But we must not dismiss the idea that this could happen before Bush leaves office, or even before the election. In May, the Republicans were not facing the loss of the election, nor the market meltdown. They very much need a distraction.

Then too, the Israelis may not wait for our permission.

Thanks to Lapin for the link.